Obviously ideally they would be generally good players who can thrive in Denver and just fall off less elsewhere. In my mind, that extreme difference in atmosphere and home-away record makes the Rockies the most interesting team in the league outside of the Rays. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. Vladito versus Olson for supremacy in the AL should be a fun battle the next few years, though the former is likely to vanquish the latter for good in a few years given their respective ages. That level of divisional chaos is sure to delight Jay Jaffe, my colleague and GM of Team Entropy or at least it would if MLB hadnt made the decision to eliminate tiebreaker games in 2022, going instead with NFL-style tiebreak procedures only. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. Thats an incredible run of success, and theyre not letting up anytime soon. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If the last 2 years are any indication, we'd need to bank on another 60 game season, God damn they are more optimistic than me. by Retrosheet. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. Lynn will be back soon enough, but his injury exposes how thin Chicagos rotation is, especially if another injury strikes. Looking at which projections went the most wayward is definitely an exercise that makes me soul cringe a bit, but in any model, being wrong is an important component of eventually being right. 2023 Pre-Season Projections ZiPS . #1 Adley Rutschman. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Welcome back, baseball! Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. Read the rest of this entry . The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. Approximately minutes of joyous analysis. The goal of ZiPS is to be less mind-blowingly awful than any other way of predicting the future. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio . Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. The exercise continues this offseason. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen THE. I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team stands after the off-season. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted And do note that the numbers coming out of cleveland are above and beyond raises and extensions. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Collin McHugh had an impressive 2022 campaign too 2.60 ERA with a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. So there you go, if projection models are your thing, thats all good news from two of the biggest sites in the baseball community. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. The Yankees may not bring Aaron Judge back, but it would be absolutely shocking if they didnt do something to replace the wins they would lose with his departure. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022.. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted They will play a number of baseball games in 2023 and win at least a handful of them. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Read the rest of this entry . The Royals and Tigers have a lot of fairly serious problems, so I doubt anyone is shocked to see them at the bottom here, though ZiPS does think KC can cobble together a halfway decent offense if they can resist doing the odd things they seemingly like to do (Ryan OHearn has the 38th-best projected WAR for a position player in their organization). Which is why I doubt the $10M number. Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. The future is tantalizingly close but beyond our ken, and if anyone figures out how to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddingtons arrow of time, its probably not going to be in the form of baseball projections. San Diego retained Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, and having a full season of Juan Soto and (hopefully) most of a year of Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite the boost. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Seagers health record hasnt been perfect, but it hasnt been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s. But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. by Retrosheet. We had four good months last year. In truth, the projections for Arizona were so positive on the whole that I actually went back and double-checked every park factor and calculation specific to the Diamondbacks and their minor league affiliates. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. Prior to signing Ramrez, Cleveland had been inconceivably passive during the offseason, signing just a single free agent to a new major league contract (Luke Maile). The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. Odds & lines subject to change. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. The Reds made it very clear that they were looking to slash payroll this offseason, bending over backwards to frame their roster deconstruction as the beginning of a realignment, not a rebuild. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. The loss of Correa at shortstop looms large. Even being average for 2 months wouldve kept us in it. Some may think. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Reservations are proceeded at phone no. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, theyll at least be entertaining to watch. Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . Read the rest of this entry . Adley Rutschman should make his debut as soon as he returns from his spring arm injury, and its possible Grayson Rodriguez could follow soon after. Which is why they were trying to trade him up until the last minute. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons. Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. This year? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. Both systems love the Mets, as most models do because, honestly, they look great on paper. Where the Chisox lie, your kind of significance starts at $40. Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. One risk facing the Royals is that Witt plays third base, with Nicky Lopez remaining the shortstop. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, It's not all bad. Like the Rangers, the Cubs are hoping that they can skip a few steps in The Process by adding talent through free agency. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Many of Chicagos projections are notably south of where they were in 2022, and there are still at least two fairly serious holes in the starting lineup that the team better be more serious about filling this year. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. Luke Voit was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and a last-minute trade for Sean Manaea solidified their rotation. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Then theres the bad news: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Ostensibly, theyre allowing him time to work on his defense since he could be moving off shortstop sooner rather than later, but hed at least give fans in Pittsburgh something to get excited about. No fucking way they are that low next year. Some may think it disappointing that the Mariners are still projected to win fewer games than in 2021, but exceeding Pythagorean record by 14 wins isnt something that actually has value in gauging future performance. You can also support monthly for just $3. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Until he actually puts his pen to the dotted line, anything can happen, and until then, first base is the Braves biggest weakness. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Entrance fee: 25 Lei. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. I guess this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason. Read the rest of this entry . JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. I dont believe thats a safe assumption at all. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but theyll likely come up short this season. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. ZiPS tends to be the most positive projection system when it comes to the St. Louis Cardinals, and 2023 looks like no exception. Bryson Stott (No. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. It would be moderately stunning if they spent money of any significance. They did sign Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly during the offseason, but without Kimbrel or Crochet, the relief corps just isnt as deep as it could have been. 25. How does this quartet of young players transition from terrorizing minor leaguers and start threatening major league ones? They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. Read the rest of this entry . Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. It boggles the mind to wonder what the Rockies would be like if their front office operated like the Rays front office. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. Been watching a bunch of old games and it's amazing to [Passan] Outfielder Juan Soto and the San Diego Padres Nightengale: DH Nelson Cruz has agreed to a one-year [Lin] Jake Cronenworth and the Padres avoided arbitration Press J to jump to the feed. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last years Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukees part. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a state of the union estimate for each team. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money line . Probably the most surprising team in these standings is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a cornucopia of players that ZiPS just really likes (Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson in particular). Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. And then theres the Orioles. For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. These projected standings do take the strength of schedule into consideration, which will be a bit more uniform now that the league has rebalanced the schedule. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors So what *does* Chicago have to spend? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. Former Braves outfielder is headed to the AL East. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. Before we get to the 2023 ZiPS projections, theres still some unfinished work from 2022 to do. The Cards (catcher, a starting pitcher) and Brewers (two outfielders) have similar levels of neediness, and this preliminary projection basically preserves their relative 2022 standing. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value.
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